The Currency Scene:
News, Events, and Stories about currency from around the world.

Talking Points:

- The US Dollar is showing a mild bounce from support this morning, with EUR/USD[1] and GBP/USD[2] both pulling back after a disappointing release of US retail sales. USD[3] had run down to support after the sell-off that showed yesterday on the back of US inflation numbers, which came-in above 2% for the sixth consecutive month of at-or-above target inflation. Positive factors, such as we saw yesterday, have brought upon USD-weakness [4]while negative factors, such as we saw in Friday’s NFP report[5] with the lagging Average Hourly Earnings are bringing on USD-weakness; deductively indicating that there’s something else doing the driving here. We discussed what that may be in this week’s Fundamental Forecast on USD entitled, Burning Coals and US Treasuries: USD Remains in the Fiscal Cross-Fire[6].

- The next big item around the US Dollar is next week’s FOMC[7] rate decision, currently carrying a 88.8% probability of getting a hike. Perhaps more pressing to near-term USD price action is whether markets begin to expect a fourth hike this year versus the current three hikes. If we do see odds for a fourth hike push-higher, this could create a short-term element of strength around USD that could, potentially, offer attractive entries into the longer-term bearish trend.

- Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Check out Traits of Successful Traders[8]. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide[9].

If you’re looking for longer-term analysis on US Stocks, the Euro[10] or the U.S. Dollar, click here for our Trading Guides[11].

US Dollar Bounces From Short-Term Support

The US Dollar is showing[12] a mild bounce from support this morning after Retail Sales figures for the month of February printed in a rather disappointing manner. The expectation was for a .3% gain, and the actual print was for a -.1% contraction. This comes on the heels of last month’s -.1% contraction (this was revised up from a prior release of -.3%) and December’s .1% gain. All in all, this continues to show a bit of weakness in the segment of the American economy that’s continued to drive in the post-Financial Collapse environment.

In the US Dollar, yesterday’s sell-off[13] on the back of the inflation report released earlier in the morning continues to loom large, as that move pushed DXY[14] back-below 90.00 and that theme of weakness largely continued throughout the US session and well-into Asia. A bit of support began to show in DXY around an area that has helped to hold the lows over the past few weeks; and this morning’s retail sales report is helping

Read more from our friends at Daily FX:

Pin It

The Logo Story

currensceneFLOGO WHTsquareThough not the oldest form of currency, some form of shell money appears to have been found on almost every continent. The shell most widely used worldwide as currency was the shell of Cypraea moneta, the money cowry.

Visit the CurrenScene Media Page