In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key levels that matter on the weekly charts heading into March trade. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setups and more.
USD/CHF Weekly Price Chart
Notes: The Swiss Franc has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2015 high with the January decline taking prices below basic trendline support extending off the 2011 low. Last week saw prices rebound off the August 2015 low / 50-line of this slope with the subsequent advance testing resistance at the median-line. Key near-term resistance stands at 9444/73 with a break below 9258 needed to mark resumption of the downtrend- such a scenario would have us eyeing subsequent Fibonacci support at the 9092-9123 backed closely by the lower median-line parallel.
Bottom Line: The immediate focus is on a break of the 9258-9473 range for guidance with the risk weighted to the downside while below confluence resistance. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading strength while below monthly open resistance at 9445, but ultimately we’ll need to validate a break of this near-term range to offer conviction.
AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart
Notes: Aussie has been trading within the confines of these ascending parallels extending off the 2016 low with the recent decline taking prices into confluence support here around 7735/50- a region defined by the 52-week moving average and the 2017 March high. Key support and bullish invalidation rests lower at 7636/37 where the 38.2% & 61.8% retracements converges on slope support (area of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries IF reached). Weekly resistance remains steady at 8125/68 with a breach / close above this region needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.
Bottom line: The immediate focus is on this support confluence- I’ll be looking for a possible exhaustion low early this week OR on a move into 7630s. Look for a rally through the 200-week moving average / yearly open at 7800 to alleviate further downside pressure near-term.
AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart
Notes: AUD/JPY broke below confluence support at 84.25 last month with the decline now testing a critical inflection zone to start the week at 81.58. The decline has held within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2017 highs with the sell-off now testing those yearly lows. Initial resistance stands with the median-line (currently ~83.20s) backed by 84.25 with bearish invalidation now eyed at the upper 50-line / 52-week moving average at ~85.80s.
Bottom line: AUD/JPY is testing support into the weekly open and IF price is going to rebound, this would be a good spot. That said, a break below this critical threshold would keep the near-term focus lower targeting the lower 50-line (currently ~80.50s) backed by the 1.618% extension of the decline off last year’s high at 79.45. From a trading standpoint, the immediate short-bias is at risk while above this support barrier with a rebound ultimately to offer more favorable short-entries.
Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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