FX Week Ahead Overview:
- The turn through the middle of September promises another week of important data releases, with ten ‘high’ rated events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar.
- Now in the communications blackout window ahead of the September FOMC meeting, US economic data will carry additional weight in lieu of Fed speakers.
- Overall, recent changes in retail trader positioning suggest that the US Dollar has a mixed bias.
09/14 TUESDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD Inflation Rate (CPI) (AUG)
Inflation has been running hotter than expected in the US for the past several data releases, but forecasts suggest that the trend is set to change course. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the headline US inflation rate is due in at +0.4% from +0.5% (m/m) and +5.3% from +5.4% (y/y) in August, with the core inflation rate (ex-energy and food) due in unchanged at +0.3% (m/m) and +4.2% from +4.3% (y/y).
Another month of headline US inflation topping +5% should catch policymakers’ attention, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell conceded during his Jackson Hole speech that the inflation mandate has been achieved. Should the US CPI report beat expectations again, heightened volatility should be expected across financial markets as it increasingly appears the Fed is being painted into a corner: US data momentum has been deteriorating just as policy normalization efforts come into focus.
09/15 WEDNESDAY | 06:00 GMT | GBP Inflation Rate (CPI) (AUG)
After staving off higher inflation pressures for much of 2021, it appears that price pressures are starting to rise in the UK. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the headline August UK inflation rateis due in at +0.5% from 0% (m/m)