The first full week of 2019 was quite the bumpy one for market sentiment. S&P 500 futures temporarily declined about 2.5 percent as Iran retaliated to a U.S. airstrike that killed its Revolutionary Guard general. Investor confidence swiftly recovered however as the two nations managed to avoid escalation. A mixed NFP[1] report ended Wall Street[2] on a cautious note Friday.
This did come at the cost of crude oil prices[3] which suffered their worst 5-day performance since the middle of July. Anti-fiat gold prices[4] trimmed most of their gains and left behind a large wick that some may call a Shooting Star. Forex volatility in the majors remained fairly low. While the US Dollar[5] cautiously climbed on average, it still is adhering to its steady descent since August.
Geopolitical tensions may take a backseat as the focus in the week ahead shifts to fundamental themes that helped drive broad sentiment in 2019. The US and China are expected to sign the highly-anticipated “phase one” trade deal. Meanwhile across the Atlantic Ocean, Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal should have fairly little trouble making its way through Parliament.
Further insight into the health of the world’s second-largest economy could have major consequences for global growth as China releases its next round of GDP data. The British Pound[6] may look past UK CPI data as the focus remains on Brexit headlines. Can the US Dollar find momentum behind inflation data out of its own home country instead?
US Dollar Outlook Bullish on Trade Deal, Retail Sales Data[7]
The US Dollar may rise if optimism on US-China trade relations and better-than-expected retail sales data deflates 2020 Fed rate cut bets.
