UK General Election Analysis & Talking Points
- UK Election: Proxy for a Second EU Referendum
- Conservatives Maintain Commanding Lead
- UK General Election Constituency Cheat Sheet
*Preview updated to account for final YouGov MRP poll
UK ELECTION: PROXY FOR A SECOND REFERENDUM
On December 12th, the UK will go back to the polls in order to break the current gridlock in parliament. The general election has been seen as a proxy for a second EU referendum[1] with voters choosing between Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal or a remain alliance, which would entail the possibility of staying within the EU. In turn, the outcome of the general election will shape the Brexit process in 2020. That said, other policies are also important with both the Conservatives and Labour party pledging more expansionary fiscal policy.
WHAT DO THE POLLS SHOW?
Much like 2017, opinion polls have been pointing to a Conservative majority, who have enjoyed a commanding lead over their nearest rivals (Labour). However, unlike that of two years ago, the Tories have managed to maintain a sizeable lead, having seemingly unified the pro-Brexit vote with an added boost from Nigel Farage’s Brexit party, who will not be campaigning for Tory seats won in 2017. By contrast, the opposition seem somewhat divided over Brexit, thus failing to narrow the gap, which in turn has made a Conservative majority the more likely outcome.
Alongside this, the YouGov MRP poll[2], which had correctly called 93% of seats at the previous election highlighted that the Conservatives are on course to win 339 seats, which would result in a 28 seat majority.However, risk lies with the margin of error, which does not rule out the possibility of a hung parliament.
Current State of Parliament: 326 Seats for Working Majority
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