GBP/USD, AUD/USD Talking Points:
- The US currency remains in an interesting spot from which both bullish and bearish cases can be made.
- For bullish USD[1]-scenarios, the short-side of AUD/USD[2] can remain as interesting. For bearish USD-setups, GBP/USD[3] remains attractive.
- DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of markets such asthe US Dollar[4] or the Euro[5] and are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page[6].
The US Dollar remains at an interesting spot on the chart[7]. After starting Q4 with an aggressive sell-off in the month of October, the first-half of November brought a retracement into the mix as the USD clawed back 50% of that previous bearish move. Resistance set-in at a familiar area on the chart[8] and after bulls pulled back last week, prices fell to a fresh weekly low. This week has so far seen buyers coming back into the equation, albeit cautiously, as price action[9] has pushed back-up to the 98.00 level in DXY[10].
US Dollar Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley[11]; US Dollar on Tradingview[12]
At this point, directional biases on the US Dollar can prove as challenging. Will sellers continue to push similar to what showed in October? Or is the currency due for more gains as buyers re-enter the equation with a similar drive as earlier this year; when the USD continued to gain even as there were minimal threats of tighter policy from the Federal Reserve?
As I had shared in yesterday’s webinar, my bias is bearish around the USD[13], largely drawn from the longer-term look in the currency.
