EURO PRICE VOLATILITY HEIGHTENED AROUND ECB MEETINGS
- EURUSD[1], EURJPY[2], EURGBP[3], EURAUD[4], EURCAD[5] and EURCHF[6] tend to experience heightened volatility around European Central Bank (ECB) meetings
- Euro[7] price action surrounding high-impact event risk like ECB rate decisions warrants extra prudence by forex traders
- Check out the IG Client Sentiment Report[8] for real-time insight on EUR forex trader positioning
Larger than normal gyrations in spot EUR prices around ECB monetary policy updates should be expected by forex traders according to data pulled on major Euro currency pairs from January 2013 to September 2019. A statistical analysis on Euro price action over the 24-hours before and after the release of ECB rate decisions reveals that EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURAUD, EURCAD and EURCHF tend to experience sizable swings in performance when compared to non-ECB meeting trading days. Though mouthwatering for volatility fiends, relatively elevated measures of volatility is broadly indicative the level of risk is running above average.
Take a look at the DailyFX Central Bank Calendar[9]for scheduled ECB meetings and upcoming interest rate decisions from other major central banks.
EURO PRICE VOLATILITY AROUND ECB MEETINGS
The table above shows the absolute value (i.e. +/-) median change in spot EUR prices surrounding an ECB meeting, which is compared to non-ECB meeting trading days where “T” is the time that an ECB rate decision crosses the wires, “T - 1” the 24-hours prior and “T + 1” the 24-hours following the central bank’s monetary policy update.
Conclusions are the same regardless of how the data is sliced-and-diced to encompass Euro price action in the runup to and aftermath of an ECB rate decision: the central
