The Australian Dollar[1] has rallied more than 3% against the US Dollar[2] off the monthly lows with the a three-week advance now targeting confluence resistance at the upper bounds of a multi-month range in price. It’s make-or-break here for the bulls. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD[3] charts this week. Review this week's Strategy Webinar[4] for an in-depth breakdown of this oil[5] price setup and more.
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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros[8], Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview[9]
Notes: In my last Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook[10] we noted that, “Aussie will need to stabilize into the start of October trade IF the September advance is to remain viable. From a trading standpoint, be on the lookout for an exhaustion low early next month with a breach above the June 2018 trendline needed to suggest a more significant low was registered in Q2.” AUD/USD[11] rebounded off the August lows into the October open with the rebound now targeting resistance at the 2018 trendline[12] / September highs at 6895.
This level is backed closely by the 61.8% retracement of the July decline at 6927- we’ll require a breach / close above this threshold to validate a larger reversal in price with such a scenario targeting key resistance at the yearly open / 61.8% retracement[13] of the yearly range at 7042/59. Look for exhaustion / support ahead of 6800 on pullbacks with bullish invalidation set to the low-week close at 6768.
