The Canadian Dollar[1] surged 0.86% against the US Dollar[2] last week but halted near multi-week lows with USD/CAD[3] continuing to trade within the confines of a well-defined price range heading into a sixth consecutive week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD[4]/CAD[5] weekly chart. Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar[6] for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie price setup and more.
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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros[9], Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview[10]
Notes: In my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook[11] we noted that, “Ultimately, the goal is to sell a higher-high here for a larger correction.” We didn’t get a higher high, but price did test the high the following day before posting an outside-day reversal lower. The move marks the largest weekly decline / range since the weekly of September 19th – that weekly range has continued to govern price for the past five weeks with momentum leveling-off around 50.
USD[12]/CAD is stuck in a range just below key confluence resistance at 1.3355/70- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement[13] of the May decline and the yearly high-week close. A consolidation pattern may be in play here off the September highs but ultimately, we’ll be looking or a break of the 1.3155-1.3370 range for further guidance on our medium-term directional bias. A downside break exposes the yearly low-week close at 1.3059 while a topside breach would shift the focus toward the upper parallel near 1.3467.
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