US Dollar Price Outlook Talking Points:
- The US Dollar has posed a bounce up to resistance at a prior support level, showing on the underside of a bullish trendline that had been in-play since last September.
- EUR/USD[1] and USD/JPY[2] can both retain some element of attractiveness for bearish USD[3] strategies.
- Tomorrow brings a holiday in the US and Friday brings Non-Farm Payrolls. This can be an especially volatile environment as that print is released into a thin liquidity environment.
US Dollar Bounce Finds Resistance at Prior Support Ahead of NFP
Interesting price action[4] themes are already starting to show in Q3 despite this week being holiday-shortened. Tomorrow will see US markets close in observance of Independence Day, and Friday will likely see limited participation out of the States for a long weekend. But – Friday morning also brings Non-Farm Payrolls, which as usual has the ability to bring some high levels of volatility into the mix, even if just for a short while.
The US Dollar has so far started Q3 on a bright note after the June sell-off[5], largely coming from a strong day on Monday that pushed prices up to resistance. That resistance is showing around the underside of a bullish trend-line that connects the lows in DXY[6] from September into early-June; and that trend-line made up the support side of a rising wedge pattern that gave-way to sellers two weeks ago. The big question at this point – will sellers hold this resistance going into and around the release of Non-Farm
