US DOLLAR[1] FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: NEUTRAL
- US Dollar still mired in 2019 range, global growth bets next in focus
- Q1 earnings reports, economic data deluge to inform slowdown fears
- Thin pre-holiday liquidity may translate into kneejerk price volatility
Check out the latest US Dollar forecast[2] and see what is expected to drive prices through mid-year!
Looking for a technical perspective on the US Dollar? Check out the Weekly USD Technical Forecast.[3]
Another week of seesaw price action left the US Dollar mired within the same choppy range that has contained price action since the beginning of the year. The uptrend from early-2018 lows is nominally intact, but the currency has not made meaningful upside progress one way or another since mid-August.
Still, last week’s developments offered a couple useful tidbits. First, the markets still respond to reminders about cooling global growth. The IMF’s grim outlook update had a sobering effect. Second, price moves on the release of US inflation data and March FOMC[4] minutes showed Fed policy speculation continues.
EARNINGS REPORTS, ECONOMIC DATA TO INFORM GLOBAL GROWTH BETS
Looking ahead, a focus on the macroeconomic narrative seems likely as trade war and Brexit negotiations recede to churn on in the background. A steady stream of high-profile corporate earnings reports and ample economic news will inform jittery investors eyeing a business cycle downshift.
US banks including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America are due to report first-quarter results. Upbeat announcements from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo buoyed market-wide risk appetite on Friday, sapping demand for haven assets and weighing on the anti-risk US
