The Canadian Dollar[1] is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar[2] this week with USD/CAD[3] trading just below key resistance into the close of the month / quarter. We’re looking for a break of the weekly opening-range with the broader outlook still weighted to the topside. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar[4] for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.
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USD/CAD Daily Price Chart
Technical Outlook: In my latest USD/CAD Technical Outlook[6] our bottom line noted that price had, “responded to confluence support and while the immediate threat is higher, the recovery remains vulnerable sub-1.3437. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure on a move towards Fibonacci resistance and be on the lookout for possible price exhaustion.” USD/CAD has continued to hold just below this key threshold with the long-bias still vulnerable while below.
Key confluence support rests at 1.3308/25 – a region defined by the 61.8% retracement[7] of the mid-March advance, the 100-day moving average and the 2018 pitchfork support. Weakness beyond this zone would exposes 1.3248 (bullish invalidation)- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Ultimately a topside breach / close above 1.3437 is needed to mark resumption targeting the upper parallel around ~1.3520.
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USD/CAD 120min Price Chart
Notes: A closer look at price action shows Loonie trading within the confines of an
