Weekly DailyFX Economic Calendar[1]
Trader Snapshot – Fundamental Themes to Keep Watch for Next Week:
- Growth Forecasts[2] Via PMIs
- Central Bank Forward Guidance
- US-China Trade War[3] Headlines from China – Trump-Xi Meeting
- US Commerce Department Ruling on Auto Tariffs
- China Financial Stability and Growth
- Brexit May-EU Negotiators Rhetoric
- Volatility Hitting New Lows
- Fading Global Sentiment (Consumers, Businesses, Governments, Investors)
Far More to Lose Should the US-China Relationship Falter Now
The clouds are undoubtedly clearing from the US-Chinese trade relationship – at least they are in the market’s perception of the situation. This past week, the headlines relating to the ongoing US-Chinese negotiations (in China) produced an unusual run of optimism among officials. Up until recently, the insight offered from US insiders would skew heavily towards the cynical – with very brief interludes of encouragement. It hasn’t been difficult to pick up on the Trump Administration’s aggressive negotiation position over the past months.
After a number of separate instances in the past where the Asian superpower has committed to open access to its markets and economy as well as comply with international laws – only to disregard their time frames and objectives later – it comes as little surprise that the hardline leaders of the US negotiation team are advising pushing China as far as possible.
In the meantime, China has attempted to keep pace with the direct tariffs without triggering a collapse into currency wars only to run out of tariffs to tax, all the while the planned slowdown in economic activity and transition away from excess
