Talking Points:
- Some of the most significant data releases and events in any given month are cropped together over the coming days, with a particular concentration of ‘high’ rated data coming between Wednesday and Friday.
- Upcoming Q4’18 GDP and January CPI readings for the Eurozone should confirm the European Central Bank’s concerns over economic momentum stalling.
- The FOMC[1] meeting on Wednesday will be the first regularly scheduled, non-quarterly meeting to feature a press conference led by the Fed Chair.
Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EST/12:30 GMT[2] for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.
01/30 Wednesday | 13:30 GMT | USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q A)
Growth expectations for Q4’18 US GDP have been tempered in recent weeks, in large part due to the federal government shutdown. The US Congressional Budget Office estimated that the economy lost at least -0.1% of GDP last quarter and -0.2% in Q1’19 as a result of the shutdown. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate sees growth due in at a more modest +2.7% from +3.6% in Q3’18 (annualized). According to Bloomberg News, the consensus forecast calls for headline growth due in at +2.6%.
Against the backdrop of a more difficult global macro environment due to the US-led trade wars as well as the fading effect of the Trump tax plan, expectations are for the US economy to continue to see slower rates of growth for the foreseeable future.
Pairs to Watch: DXY
