BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth cooled slightly in the fourth quarter from a year earlier as expected, weighed down by weak investment and faltering consumer confidence as Washington piled on trade pressure, leaving 2018 growth the weakest in 28 years.
KEY POINTS
* Q4 GDP +6.4 pct y/y (f’cast +6.4 pct, prev +6.5 pct)
* Q4 GDP +1.5 pct q/q (f’cast +1.5 pct, prev +1.6 pct)
* 2018 GDP +6.6 pct vs 2017’s +6.8 percent
* Dec industrial output +5.7 pct y/y (f’cast +5.3, Nov +5.4)
* Dec retail sales +8.2 pct y/y (f’cast +8.2, Nov +8.1)
* Jan-Dec fixed asset investment +5.9 pct y/y (f’cast +6.0, Jan-Nov +5.9 pct)
* Dec property investment +8.2 pct y/y vs +9.3 pct in Nov - Reuters calculation
MARKET REACTION
Asian markets kept their nerve while China's stock market held steady after the data. The Australian dollar AUD=D4, seen as a liquid proxy for China demand, also held largely steady.
LARRY HU, AN ECONOMIST AT MACQUARIE CAPITAL, HONG KONG
“There are three key drivers of the Chinese economy: infrastructure, property and exports. We see that infrastructure is rebounding, but property and exports are slowing down.
“We expect an escalation of stimulus in infrastructure and property in the second half.”
RAYMOND YEUNG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, GREATER CHINA, ANZ
“I believe they want to see an aggressive target (above 6.5 percent) as they celebrate the 70th anniversary (of the establishment of the PRC)”
“China can’t rely on exports or a very difficult manufacturing sector, but we see an upside in infrastructure. The government will approve a
