Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral
Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:
- Party leaders cannot agree on television debate schedule.
- Brexit vote on December 11 may be delayed.
The DailyFX Q4GBP Forecast[1] is available to download.
The Brexit agreement vote on December 11 is now looking unlikely according to talk from some senior Conservative members as the Irish backstop conundrum continues to dominate proceedings. The chair of the influential 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers said yesterday that unless the UK had an answer to how it may remove itself from the Northern Irish backstop that he would ‘welcome the vote being deferred until such time as we can answer that question’. Prime Minister Theresa May, who is fully expected to lose the vote if it occurs, brushed aside such thoughts and said the vote would take place as planned. This is contrast to the television debate between the PM and the leader of the opposition which has now been cancelled as both the BBC and ITV have refused to host the debate due to the demands of either leader.
There has also been a growing groundswell from MPs to shift course from PM May’s deal to a softer Brexit with Parliament taking control of negotiations if/when the PM’s deal is voted down on Tuesday. As it stands, next week could be a make or break moment for Theresa May who may well not be the Prime Minister going into the New Year.
Brexit Latest: Sterling Sinks as UK PM May Loses Control.[2]
Brexit News: Sterling (GBP) Soars after EU Dangles Brexit Carrot.[3]
Against this chaotic background, Sterling has traded sideways with investors unwilling to commit
