In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Oil prices have continued to plummet with crude attempting its sixth consecutive weekly decline into a critical support confluence at the yearly lows. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the Crude Oil[1] (WTI) weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar[2] for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.
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Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart (WTI)
Notes: In last month’s Crude Oil Weekly Technical Perspective[4] we highlighted a critical support confluence at the lower bounds of a multi-year formation in price around 67.83. A break lower in late-October has fueled a decline of more than 23% from the yearly highs with price now targeting the next major support hurdle at 57.45-58.10 – a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2016 advance, the 2018 opening-range low and the lower parallel of the descending pitchfork[5] extending off the yearly highs.
The focus is on this critical range with the immediate short-bias at risk near-term while above 57.45. Initial resistance stands at the yearly open at 60.06 backed by the median-line / August low at 64.40 (near-term bearish invalidation). A break / close lower from here risks accelerated losses in crude prices with such a scenario targeting the 55-handle backed by the 200-week moving average around ~52.25
