The US mid-term elections and FOMC[1] rate decision from this past week were noteworthy distractions for the markets, but they were not ultimately true course settings for the markets. The docket thins out next week, but open-ended themes from trade wars to Brexit to Italy’s budget can wrest back focus.
Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Can Hold Up As Long As Risk Appetite Does Too[2]
The Australian Dollar[3] has finally managed to rise from the canvas despite the persistent weakness of domestic inflation and a lack of clear interest rate support.
Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Prices May Extend Fall as Fed Boosts USD, Sinks S&P 500[4]
Crude oil prices[5] flirted with a 10-day loss, an eleventh would be the longest losing streak in over thirty years. Fed, stronger US Dollar[6] and S&P 500[7] declines may pressure the commodity lower.
Oil Forecast – Oil Price Enters Bear Market Even as U.S. Crude Output Hits Record-High[8]
The current environment is likely to keep crude prices under pressure as OPEC changes gears, while the RSI pushes into oversold territory for the first time since 2017.
British Pound Forecast – Brexit Breakthrough Needed for Bullish Breakout[9]
Brexit breakthrough needed to awaken GBP[10] bulls. Lack of concrete progress to keep Pound on backfoot, while plethora of UK data will likely take a back seat.
US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Rebound May Continue on CPI, European Politics[11]
The US Dollar may continue to push higher after last week’s rebound as CPI data boosts Fed rate hike bets while shaky
