High level fundamentals proved substantive this past week between a possible Brexit path after the EU Summit and the slowest pace of growth for China in 9 years. Ahead, the scheduled updates are still material – such as US 3Q GDP as well as ECB and BOC rate decisions – but we should also keep aware of the deep fundamental currents like risk trends and trade wars
Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD Price at Risk to Political Uncertainty, Fed Bets, BoC Rate Hike[1]
The Australian Dollar[2] looks vulnerable, threatened by Prime Minister Scott Morrison losing his majority, rising hawkish Fed policy bets and the Bank of Canada overtaking the RBA.
Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Joins Macro Headlines For Busy October As Stockpiles Build[3]
Despite trading to four-year highs to open the month, October has flashed warning signs that demand could be cooling at a time when a key central bank, the Fed is putting the brakes on easy money.
British Pound Forecast – Brexit Stuck in a Rut, UK PM May on a Tightrope[4]
The Irish border problem remains unsolved and Brexit negotiations continue to tread water as UK PM May faces a potential rebellion at home.
US dollar Forecast – US Dollar Regains Momentum, Aims to Capitalize on Market Turmoil[5]
The US Dollar[6] may continue to push higher against a backdrop of risk aversion after the Fed signaled it won’t abandon rate hikes to rescue swooning stock prices.
Gold Forecast - Awaiting Decisive Breakout with Eyes on US GDP[7]
Gold[8] is on course for its thirdly weekly gain with the precious metal
