Talking Points:
- Gold's rebound has nothing to do with the perception of its standing as a safe haven and everything to do with the fact that the US Dollar[1] is struggling.
- The daily 13-EMA, which had been resistance since mid-June, has survived tests as support yesterday and today, suggesting Gold may have indeed turned the corner.
- Retail traders[2] remain net-long Gold, but sentiment has started to shift in a manner that reinforces a near-term bullish outlook.
See our longer-term forecasts for the US Dollar, Euro[3], British Pound[4] and more with the DailyFX Trading Guides[5]
With the US Dollar in the midst of its worst stretch of the year - having lost ground in nine of the last 10 sessions, today included - Gold prices have been able to post a meaningful rebound from their yearly lows. As discussed last week[6], the US Dollar is the single most important factor driving Gold at the moment - neither the US-China trade war nor the Turkish Lira implosion have had nowhere close to the same impact in recent weeks and months.
While Gold's long-term charts haven't changed that much over the past week (see last week's update[7] for multi-month views), there has been an important development in recent days that is worth calling attention to. As previously observed, Gold had been holding below its daily 13-EMA for over two months, last posting a close above said moving average on June 14.
Gold Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (June to August 2018) (Chart 1)
However, the run below the daily 13-EMA officially came to an end on Friday, August
