Gold Talking Points
Gold prices[1] are trading in a narrow range following the failed attempt to test the July 2017-low ($1207), but the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside as the precious metal continues to track the bearish trend from earlier this year.
Gold Carves Narrowing Range Following Failed Run at July 2017 Low
The recent rebound in bullion has been accompanied by U.S. dollar[2] weakness, with the greenback losing ground against all of its major counterparts, and the growing threat of a global trade war[3] may continue to sap the appeal of the reserve currency as President Donald Trump tweets that ‘anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States.’
The repercussions from the shift in U.S. trade policy may become a growing discussion at the Federal Reserve as ‘most participants noted that uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified and were concerned that such uncertainty and risks eventually could have negative effects on business sentiment and investment spending,’ but recent comments from Chairman Jerome Powell & Co.[4] suggest the central bank will stay on its current course to implement higher borrowing-costs as the central bank largely achieves its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability.
With that said, Fed Fund Futures may continue to reflect expectations for four rate-hikes in 2018 as market participants gear up for a move in September and December, and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC hiking-cycle may continue to sap the appeal of gold as ‘the Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of
