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Euro has plummeted more than 6% off the yearly highs with the decline now testing an area of confluent support which could offer a near-term reprieve to the recent sell-off. That said, the focus is on a break of the 1.1709-1.1827 range for guidance with the broader downside bias at risk near-term.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: In last week’s Euro Technical Perspective[1] we noted that, “The immediate EUR/USD decline is at risk” as price was, “approaching confluence support around 1.1709/45 where the 38.2% retracement of the late-2016 advance converges on a parallel of the dominant slope[2] extending of the November low.” Price registered a low yesterday at 1.1717 before rebounding higher on building momentum divergence and highlights the near-term threat for a larger recovery.

Initial resistance is eyed at 1.1827 and a daily close above this threshold (with and RSI[3] recovery above 30) would suggest a more significant low may be in place. A break lower from here invalidates the reversal play with such a scenario targeting the 2016 high at 1.1616 backed closely by median-line support[4].

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EUR/USD 240min Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - 240min Timeframe

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action sees the pair trading within the confines of descending pitchfork formation with price rebounding off parallel support extending off the 5/8 low (red). Note that the drop into 1.1753 achieves the broader measured objective of the February – April consolidation break and IF price is going to rebound, this would be a good

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currensceneFLOGO WHTsquareThough not the oldest form of currency, some form of shell money appears to have been found on almost every continent. The shell most widely used worldwide as currency was the shell of Cypraea moneta, the money cowry.

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