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TALKING POINTS – US DOLLAR, FED COMMENTARY, AUSSIE DOLLAR, YEN

  • Hawkish Fed rhetoric may put the US Dollar[1] back on the offensive
  • Yen, Franc may fall as S&P 500[2] futures hint at risk-on mood ahead
  • Aussie Dollar correcting lower after hitting one week high Friday

The Australian Dollar[3] underperformed in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade. The move appeared corrective after the currency hit a one-week high against its US counterpart on Friday in the wake of April’s US jobs report. It revealed slower wage inflation than economists expected, cooling Fed rate hike speculation and boosting alternatives at the high end of the G10 FX yield spectrum.

From here, a quiet offering on the European data docket seems likely to put a series of scheduled remarks from Fed officials in the spotlight. Comments from Vice Chair Randal Quarles as well as four regional branch presidents are due to cross the wires. Rhetoric that echoes last week’s FOMC[4] statement to make the case for substantive tightening beyond 2018 might put the US Dollar back on the offensive.

On the sentiment front, an uptick on futures tracking the bellwether S&P 500 stock index hints at firming sentiment in the hours ahead. In the FX space, that might translate into weakness for standby anti-risk currencies including the Japanese Yen[5] and the Swiss Franc[6]. Diminished liquidity courtesy of a market closure in the UK might undermine follow-through however.

See our quarterly FX market forecast[7]s to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!

ASIA

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