The price of bitcoin over its 12-year lifespan has been extraordinarily volatile. There have been five discernible price spikes followed by significant drawdowns in the price action. That many price spikes over such a short time frame is highly unusual in financial markets. However, given that bitcoin is traded 24/7, in any given week it trades for five times the number of hours that traditional markets are open. With five times more trading hours per week, bitcoin has effectively experienced 60 years’ worth of trading when measured in traditional market time. Bitcoin has already traded for more hours than the S&P 500 index[1], which launched in 1957.
However, the focus of this article is on the timing of these price spikes. It is well documented already that bitcoin bull runs have occurred in the 18 or so months that follow a mining reward halving event (a fixed and predictable event in bitcoin’s source code). This run-up in price is not surprising as a decrease in available supply in any commodity market often drives an increase in the price of that commodity. The primary question of this article is why do these price spikes seem to occur in the winter?
Three of these price spikes have occurred in the winter months of the northern hemisphere, while two have occurred in the summer months of the northern hemisphere. As bitcoin is an asset class dominated primarily by men[2] residing in the United States, Europe, and Asia, this article explores a possible correlation between the seasonal variations in male testosterone levels and the timing of cycle peaks in the price of bitcoin. Although the price of bitcoin has also spiked in the summer months, these occurrences may be attributable to exogenous events, as
