Bitcoin’s price has clearly has not been able to thrive above the $40k level, of late. In fact, at press time, the king coin was valued at $38,335. This essentially points to the fact that BTC’s trajectory is filled with a host of hurdles. Only when it manages to overcome them can its rally actually commence.
In this article, we will analyze a few key trends and conclude with whether or not BTC will be able to pull off a rally over the coming weeks.
Liveliness
Coin Liveliness is a key indicator that is used to evaluate the broader market trend. As such, it is the ratio between Coin Days Destroyed and Coin Days Created. Usually, liveliness increases when long-term HODLers liquidate their positions and decreases when they accumulate or HODL.
Now, as can be seen from the chart attached, this metric has jumped significantly higher over the past few days. This essentially means that old coins are being spent.
However, there is a silver lining to this. The entity-adjusted version has not seen any hikes as such. In fact, it has continued its macro downtrend. When viewed in conjunction, it would be fair to claim that it may simply represent the reshuffling of internal coins of an exchange cold wallet. Hence, the rise in this metric doesn’t seem to be a major concern for now.
Source: Glassnode
On-chain activity
At this stage, Bitcoin’s on-chain activity continues to remain low. As can be observed, the entity-adjusted transaction count was down by 38% when compared to its February peak. To make things worse, the press time levels were equivalent to the 2018-19 capitulation bottom levels.
As a matter of fact, the transaction count over the past few weeks has revolved around the 200k mark. Healthy on-chain activity usually triggers a positive
