Why your Bitcoin portfolio may increase another 63%

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Hitting a new ATH and crossing $61000 within a few hours of breaking past the previous ATH, Bitcoin ^[1] is hitting new highs unlike the modest price targets set for the weekend. The options-based probability of Bitcoin ^[2] exceeding $100000 by end of March 2021 is 1% but the king coin crossing this coveted price range by end of April 2021 is 8% and the end of December 2021, is 20%. It’s exciting now, since the price has already crossed $61000, and moved out of the rangebound price action before the end of March 2021, and this has pave way for Bitcoin’s ^[3] price to cross $100000 before the end of April 2021.

Probability of BTC being above $x per maturity || Source: Twitter ^[4]

What’s interesting here is that at the same time, the chart can be used to predict the probability of Bitcoin’s price dropping below $40000 at the end of March 2021 is 5%, end of April 2021 is 20% and the end of December 2021 is 45%. Additionally, metrics like Bitcoin futures basis crossed 30% annualized. Stablecoin inflow and institutional demand on spot exchanges have increased. However, the current buying pressure and the probability of Bitcoin’s price hitting $100000 rely on activity in Bitcoin options and on derivatives exchanges. BTC options open interest continues to remain at ATH.

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Why your Bitcoin portfolio may increase another 63%

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