The bitcoin market has been full of "Black Swan" incidents in 2019, including Facebook’s launch of Libra in June and, recently, China’s state policy in favor of promoting the development of blockchain technology. After these two incidents, the price of bitcoin quickly pushed to more than $10,000[1], which excited the market for a while.
However, with the subsequent progress of Libra faltering and reports of tough crackdowns on fraud associated with cryptocurrencies dominating the Chinese media, the positive effects of the Black Swans is beginning to fade rapidly. As such, now is a good time to reflect and rethink the current situation and future of bitcoin.
Diminished Enthusiasm in Bitcoin Markets
In general, what I see now is a situation of diminished enthusiasm within the bitcoin community in China. For one thing, the “old money,” that is, investors who tend to favor traditional financial products like stocks, bonds or commodities, have not stepped up to any great degree yet.
The market had been expecting these old-money investors to recognize the value of bitcoin and allocate some of their funds to BTC. If this happens, we can expect the price to be driven up. So far, however, there is just a group of depressed investors and speculators left to support the changeable market and face the fluctuating prices.
Lower Sales in Bitcoin Miners
Second, bitcoin miners have lately seemed hesitant to invest in new machines.
Since April 2019, miners have had a wonderful time, benefiting from the rise in the price of bitcoin and enjoying the dividends of extremely cheap electricity that is common during the Chinese “wet season” that runs from May to October. Babel Finance[2]’s business reflected this situation — the miners' demand for loans decreased significantly after this period. It
