It’s been weeks since ether has seen a new high or a new low and the market has found itself range-bound. At the moment, we are seeing signs of distribution as large rounds of selling have remained present during key support tests:
Figure 1: ETHUSD, 4 Hour Candles, Trading Range
So far, for the last few weeks, ether has seen a trend of higher lows and low highs (the converging red trendlines). The three arrows shown above display the presence of heavy selling pressure (supply) and, so far, the market has failed to garner enough buying pressure (demand) to bring the price level back above the AR level shown above and buying pressure seems to be waning. The lower boundary of the trading range (the dark blue line) has proven to be strong support and the last week’s trend has seen relatively higher highs and higher lows. However, some key levels need to be monitored.
The high volatility and the high volume associated with the volatility is showing signs that the trading range might be in distribution. However, it’s still fairly early in this trading range’s life cycle and its entire possible this most recent strong round of selling is a test of demand.
Figure 2: ETHUSD, 4 Hour Candles, Strong Retest Reaction
After the Sign of Weakness (SOW) last week, the market saw a retest of the trading range support and it had a very strong reaction to the test (shown in pink). A high volume reaction to a support retest is typically a sign that we may see the top of the trading range to further test the supply of the market. Whether this trading range reveals itself to be a distribution or an accumulation, it’s entirely possible we will see a test of the preliminary supply
