The Currency Scene:
News, Events, and Stories about currency from around the world.

Talking Points:

- This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report came-in below expectations, printing at +146k v/s the expectation of +190k.

- This produced a quick blip of weakness in the U.S. Dollar – but buyers showed up at support to push prices right back up to resistance.

- If you’re looking for big picture trade ideas or education, please check out our Trading Guides[1]. And if you’re looking for shorter-term ideas, our IG Client Sentiment indicator can help[2].

To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here[3]

Coming into this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report out of the United States – a glimmer of hope had developed for U.S. Dollar bulls as the Greenback continued to respect the support that was established earlier in the week. Prices had trickled up to the first resistance level we had looked at in yesterday’s article, but as the actual data came-in quite a bit below expectations, sellers came back to take DXY[4] prices from resistance almost directly to that same area of support.

This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls number came in at +146k versus the expectation of +190k[5]. This was led by large losses in the retail sector, and this constitutes a rather large miss on the headline number. Looking inside of the report isn’t quite as bad, as the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% and Average Hourly Earnings printed in-line with expectations at .3% or 2.5% annualized. But it was the miss on the headline number that really seemed to grab attention from market participants, as the U.S. Dollar posed a round trip from resistance to support on this morning’s data.

U.S. Dollar via ‘DXY’ 30-Minute: Resistance Pre-NFP (Red), Support Check After the Print (Blue)

US Dollar 30 Minute

Chart prepared by James Stanley[6]

We looked into the Dollar’s trend yesterday, and after a brutal 2017 the New Year isn’t shaping up to be much different. After gapping-lower to start the week ahead of New Year’s Day, the Greenback has been unable to recover despite the continued build of support around 91.75. We’re nearing some interesting support territory – as 91.37 is the 50% retracement of the 2014-2017 major move, and this area appeared to assist in setting the low in DXY last September. That low from September constitutes a three-year low, and that remains at 91.01.

U.S. Dollar via ‘DXY’ Daily: Longer-Term Support Structure Below Near-Term Support

U.S. Dollar Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley[7]

EUR/USD[8]

On the polar end of the spectrum from the persistent weakness showing in the U.S. Dollar has been strength in the Euro[9]. The single currency closed out 2017 in a rather positive fashion, and against the U.S. Dollar, we finally saw the pair re-engage with the

Read more from our friends at Reuters: